There is a very obvious war on cash and a push for digital controlled currency and an agreement from over 100 countries to drop the dollar (research operation sandman) that I'm questioning if any of my collections (small as they are) will hold any value. Maybe it would be best to cash out and buy intrinsic commodities while I can. Thoughts on the future of collecting?
1. "Coin collecting" should always, first and foremost, be about actually enjoying the things you collect. If the primary, or even an important secondary, consideration is "making sure they increase in value", then you're not a collector, you're an investor. Or rather, a speculator, since "investing" implies getting some kind of return on investment, and coins don't pay dividends or interest.
2. I have no idea what this secret conspiracy to destroy the US dollar might be, but I've never heard of it before. Conspiracy theories are, 99% of the time, the result of the combination of a fertile imagination and zero actual evidence. The US dollar still underpins much of the world's financial markets. "Collapsing the dollar" without first replacing the dollar with something else in those market fundamentals, would only see those foreign agents shooting themselves in the foot.
3. The rise of the cashless society has little or nothing to do with the ability of the US dollar to rise and fall. Physical cash has only been a tiny percentage of the total money supply for a very long time now. Even getting rid of physical cash completely, would have little bearing on whether the US dollar rises or falls.
4. You present a false dichotomy: "coins" or "intrinsic commodities". Why not both? Most coins are both. Collect silver and gold coins, as the most obvious example. Further, if your collection is collectable coins and banknotes, it's highly likely that most of the value in your collection is in the numismatic premium, rather than face value. A collapse in value of the dollar, therefore, would result in minimal price falls for collectable coins. So unless your collection consists entirely of circulated $100 notes, or some other ridiculous extreme, then your collection is already in the form of "intrinsic commodities" whose value is not directly pinned to the US dollar.
5. Commodity prices are going to trend upwards, irrespective of the rise and fall of the US dollar compared to other countries, simply because of supply and demand: demand for precious metals increases exponentially with population, while actual production of precious metal is unable to keep up. Until and unless this fundamental situation changes (by a war, great plague or some other disaster bringing the population down, and/or somebody going out and finding a solid gold asteroid and bringing it back to Earth) then precious metal prices should continue to trend upwards. Precious metals should, therefore, be a safer "speculation haven" than coin collecting, no matter what the dollar does.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
Quote: "Coin collecting" should always, first and foremost, be about actually enjoying the things you collect. If the primary, or even an important secondary, consideration is "making sure they increase in value", then you're not a collector, you're an investor. Or rather, a speculator, since "investing" implies getting some kind of return on investment, and coins don't pay dividends or interest.
Agree 100%. This applies to all kinds of collectibles. Every new collector should read this first. Enjoy what you collect.
I don't see any evidence of a conspiracy against the USD.
Some actual evidence of the opposite: In the last 3 months, the AUD has crashed nearly 10% in relation the USD. In recent times, other than than US countries seem to be increasing at least some of their foreign reserves in USDollars, and away from gold. I have a small but significant Pt stash.
As a coin collector and (I like kidding myself, a numistmatist), that does not worry me one little bit. As a coin collector, I have not even the least intention of stopping. I have seen all of this before, over the last 50 years or so.
A careful conjunctive study of the 50 year commodity charts, inflation rates, stock market indexes and currency conversion charts should give you a helpful insight and prove that Chicken Little is wrong.
A lot to unpack in that small post. I googled Project Sandman and now have 99.99% confidence that it is kookoo-for-cocoa-puffs conspiracy theory nonsense. Reminds me of reading about flat-earth, anti-vax, or election conspiracy garbage. With that said, numismatic collections are almost always a bad long-term investment when compared to stocks, real estate, bonds, etc. As SAP said, maybe "speculation" but not "investment."
Commodities...well it depends what you mean by commodities. Commodity futures can do well at times (you could argue the current inflationary times included), but you are way late to the party, and they are not historically a good long-term investment either. IMHO, you need to be an insider to really make money here. However, if you are just talking about stocking up on physical commodities...well, let's just say that no financial advisor is going to recommend you buy $50,000 of copper or some other raw material to store in your basement.
The greatest investors of our lifetime like Buffet give their investment advice for free. Listen, use common sense, and tune out the random garbage we are constantly flooded with over the internet. That, of course, includes my advice, which is worth exactly what you paid for it.
As for your original question on the future of collecting, I interpret that to mean "will the value of my collection go up or down?" My personal opinion is that after the growth of the past few years, we are likely to experience a period where the curve flattens or perhaps a small dropoff over the next 1-3 years. After that (5+ years), the overall economic situation will either improve, remain flat, or decline depending on the exact severity and length of the expected upcoming recession, the annual inflation rates for the next 10 years, the future money supply changes, and how international trade and diplomacy look for the next decade, and other factors. However, the economic forecast is only one factor that will influence the future value of our collections. Does the boomer generation collect at a higher rate than the gen X and Z generations will? As older populations age out of the hobby, how will that impact demand? If I was forced to make a guess, I expect these factors and inflation will generally cancel each other out, and we will see flat(ish) prices/valuations over the next 30 years once we get past some near-term inflation and correction.
@BeTrue to CCF & I gotta tell you that the title of your thread had me going! I thought, "jeez-louise, did I miss something?"
Quote: There is a very obvious war on cash and a push for digital controlled currency
- I actually agree with you here but then you lose me. I have no doubt that the BTCA are waging a very successful campaign to be rid of physical cash: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bette...ash_Alliance
When I first heard of this group after watching the documentary below I was flabbergasted that Bill Gates had set up such a ridiculous lobby group. And I remember the wiki site posted 50'ish nation members n 2018 (now they're 77 governments). No doubt this will grow with VISA, Paypal & many organizations jumping the bandwagon.
After watching this insightful video, I started to watch a lot of other Youtube videos connected to crypto, the USD & even collecting paper money. Most of it was deceptive, prone to exaggeration & full of wild claims (& conspiracy theories). I have to say that the title of your thread reminded me of the hyperbole I watched. I guess its a tendency to make speculative claims that these "tubers" employ to drum up hits/likes (whatever) without a shred of evidence (but jeez- great graphics!) Probably the most unhelpful videos are the ones that support the premise that collecting coins/banknotes will lead to riches & should be considered an "investment."
Anyway, as @Sap articulates very nicely, only a tiny portion of commerce is conducted employing physical cash (point #3) but whether this has any bearing on the hobby is to premature to say (& has little to do with the value of any currency USD, Euro, etc).
I have never had a credit card. My bank advised me many years ago not to have one. Amongst the best independent financial advice I have ever received. Never been in debt, never been scammed.
Australian citizens lost $2 billion in 2021, due to scams. That works out to $80 each for every man woman and child in the Country.
For me cash is king. With physical cash, I can budget daily, weekly monthly and yearly. A good habit to have.
With inflation I am too heavily invested in cash, but just for now, cash is loosing less value due to inflation than DJIA average stock market pricing. We the People will pay off some of the National debt with inflated Dollars, if we want to, or not. The personal cost will be job loss.
When the stock market looses more than about 40 % from it's peak, I will instruct my superannuation managers to invest half of my remaining cash back into shares. Until then, I will be reticent to move. After every significant stock market decline, there has been a strong recovery within a weak economy. May take 3 or more years to recover.
All fiat currencies are failing. The US (Federal Reserve) Dollar is pig with the most lipstick, but it too will fail. BRICS nations moving to asset backed currency, that is the future.
The value of a national fiat currency of a country is dependent on two things: 1.the GDP of the country, and 2. honesty of the government of that country.
So many countries fail on the second of these.
The US Government may not be squeaky clean, but it is far more honest than most. If the Government was less honest than it currently is, the inflation rate would be more like that of Russia
The dollar will be here for a long time...demographics will come into play over the decades to come...this is still our century...there are times America has dipped a little...but right or wrong we are still the strongest democracy in the world...the belief in America is what supports the dollar...what other country do immigrants want to get to in droves, over a continuous span of years.
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Posted 07/14/2022 5:29 pm
