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Valued Member
United States
207 Posts |
This is 100 year gold chart from Macrotrends. It shows inflation adjusted gold price. I have the recessions and log scale toggled off. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/hi...0-year-chartIs it saying that gold tends to peak out at around $2500 inflation adjusted? How do you interpret this chart?
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Valued Member
Canada
113 Posts |
Have not seen this chart before (inflation adjusted) but I have read a few chart books and always look at charts before I buy or sell stocks . My opinion is the last part of the chart looks like a bull flag just breaking out. Just my opinion.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3188 Posts |
I don't think the chart indicates an inflation-adjusted peak in dollars because I don't think the dollar is done inflating.
Over the past 5 years, the BRICS countries have been accumulating gold. If they succeed in moving to some kind of gold standard, fiat currency inflation will probably accelerate. India has already started selling sovereign gold bonds which trade only in India. If other countries in BRICS follow this, their central banks will need to boost reserves. I'm not sure that this gets them all the way to gold-backed currencies, but it will drain the world gold supply. It will most likely force inflation on the countries trading solely in fiat currencies. Going to metal backing, even partially, will force deleveraging of fiat currency debtor nations IMO.
I am curious whether the US and Canadian governments will start issuing gold bonds instead of just bullion coinage. One advantage is that bonds are safer to hold than coins, and are a stable store of value. The disadvantage is that it draws away buyers of fiat debt like Treasuries.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq 10/21/2024 08:59 am
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Valued Member
 United States
207 Posts |
The world has pretty much decided there will never be any gold backed currencies. There are only 2 challengers to USD hegemony , the EUR and Yuan and the EUR has basically crippled themselves via their energy policy. This is actually the one and only thing that can at least ameliorate inflation and save the world. A massive adoption of nuclear energy to drop the cost of energy to near zero.
Young emerging economies do buy gold to try and add at least some legitimacy to their fledging currencies. But to try a gold backed currency? All that will happen is your gold will disappear and all you'll have left are dump trucks filled with other countries fiat currencies.
The deleveraging process is pretty well established. Refinance some, extend maturities, write off some plus a little bit of austerity.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3188 Posts |
Issuing sovereign gold bonds is not the same as issuing a currency, but it has a similar effect. Over the last two years the Rupee has not inflated much vs the dollar, but the gold bonds haven't contributed much to that. Nevertheless, the Indian gold bond market appears to be about 3 billion USD right now, and tripled in size since last year. To support the bonds, India needs to buy gold. And they've kept it internal so that the gold doesn't leave the country. Dividends are paid in gold. It appears that the maturities are 8 years out, and current interest rate is 2.5%.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq 10/21/2024 1:04 pm
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157664 Posts |
Quote: The world has pretty much decided there will never be any gold backed currencies. Well, the world does not have enough gold to back the currency of any one economy, let alone currencies to serve the entire world. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1757 Posts |
If all the nations could agree to set gold spot price at $1 trillion per ounce, then there might be enough gold to back everyone's currency LOL. There's speculation BRICS is trying to compete against the dollar and establish a currency partially backed by gold and other commodities, we'll see.
Edited by livingwater 10/21/2024 4:06 pm
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Moderator
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157664 Posts |
Quote: If all the nations could agree to set gold spot price at $1 trillion per ounce Gold still has industrial uses, so this should never happen. It also just takes one desperate person to crash the market. At least CCF becomes flush with trillionaires. 
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Valued Member
 United States
207 Posts |
It seems obvious that we can't just arbitrarily assign a huge value to anything like gold, BTC or a newly minted trillion dollar unobtainium coin to get us out of this mess. It appears a forgone conclusion that we have arrived at a generally agreed upon standard of USD. I took a quick glance at some other currencies. Is there ANY currency that is not declining against USD? Doesn't that mean they are printing at a more profligate rate than US? When even one country can't take on USD how does that country and a motley crew of sketchy countries do it?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3188 Posts |
The Indian government stopped issuing the gold bonds last February. The high price of gold right now is causing them problems, as the first wave of 8 year bonds matures. At the time of purchase in 2016 gold was roughly $1200 an ounce and now is above $2700, so redemption in 2024 is an investor's dream, representing 11% annual appreciation. The government pays out at 2024 cash value of the gold weight purchased in 2016. This is in addition to the 2.5% annual interest the bonds pay. On top of that, the government doesn't charge capital gains, so they're like munis in the USA. [How I wish I had bonds that paid out like this!] They allow an individual to purchase up to 4kg of gold per year - around $350,000.
It's great for the individual but horrible for the Indian government, and they're looking at 8 years of these redemptions. I'd suspect that the government has created its own problems due to its role in driving the price of gold up to create bigger national reserves. Much of the world's gold is already locked up in national reserves so they have to pry it out of the hands of private enterprises at market price. This year they have been buying roughly 20 tons of gold per quarter.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq 10/23/2024 8:34 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1500 Posts |
Quote: How do you interpret this chart? I find it impossible to interpret a gold chart when for most of the years the value was dictated by the government, and it was illegal to own.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1775 Posts |
Cup & Handle IMHO, and keep hearing $3000 p/o by years end.
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Pillar of the Community
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4065 Posts |
Quote: A massive adoption of nuclear energy to drop the cost of energy to near zero. The cost to build, operate, and decommission those plants is substantial. The fuels must also be mined, stored, transported, and safely disposed of once depleted. Nuclear is pretty good from a carbon emissions standpoint—acknowledging that you've converted a CO2 problem into a waste heat and spent fuel problem—but it's not a panacea from a cost standpoint. The same is true of people claiming that sunshine and wind are free. While that is true, the infrastructure and personnel to responsibly utilize the free input energy are decidedly not free, and to ignore those costs is a tad frivolous. Arguments of that form could also be made for rivers flowing and geology producing fossil fuels as free, and those arguments would be similarly impractical from a utilization standpoint. To the original question, gold does vary over time. If you stripped out fiat inflation (and particularly inflation in excess of GDP growth), I think what would remain is a reasonable fingerprint of economic confidence over time. In turmoil, gold's value rises as a universally accepted store of wealth. In abundance, gold subsides as other commodities like oil, timber, industrial raw materials rise in value. When gold rises in tandem with those commodities, it seems reasonable that it would be die to monetary inflation, and when they fall in tandem, that would probably be in times of deleveraging, when the commodity value of cash rises sharply.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1500 Posts |
The rumor with the BRICS is a currency with 40% gold backing and 60% local currencies.
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Moderator
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157664 Posts |
Quote: a currency with 40% gold backing and 60% local currencies. That is a lot of gold or not a lot of currency. 
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Pillar of the Community
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4065 Posts |
How would that even work? What would it really mean to be partially gold backed, any more than the current situation of fiat-issuing sovereign nations holding gold reserves?
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