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Analysis Of 18,000 Random Bills In Circulation

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United States
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 Posted 08/23/2024  02:22 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add TheSerialFlorist to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I've always wondered what I would find if I did a large-scale analysis of dollar bills in circulation. So...Here's what I found! Questions and comments welcomed!

This is the scope of my study:


Analysis of Series:


--Comparing SJ23 and SJ24 shows the reduction of 2009 and 2013 by about 30%, and reduction in 2017 of about 24% as the new 2017As and 2021s made their way into circulation. 2003 and earlier were 1.2% of the total.
--Just looking at the 2023 samples in SJ23 and NJ, 2021 had not made their way into circulation yet. There's a remarkably even distribution of 2017A, 2017 and 2013. 1.4% of the bills were 2003 or earlier.
--A few months later, 2021 represented 3.5% in BOS and 8.5% in ATL. BOS is not on my chart because I only had limited time there, enough only to count 2021, not other series.
--I noted a significant number of crisp 2017A in both SJ23 and ATL, not perfectly sequential but looked like they had just been put into circulation although they were printed October 2022.


Production:

--Washington DC production is about one fourth of total BEP production going back to 2009.
--Just under 50% of the bills I found in NJ and BOS were DC production, so about twice the national average.
Only 12% of what I found in SJ was printed in DC, or about half the national average. That 12%, I'd assume, migrated to SJ rather than being distributed there from the BEP.

Federal Reserve Letters:

--The green boxes are the 'home' FRD for my sample locations
--There's a strong correlation between FRD letter and Location for both ATL, SJ23 And SJ24, all about about 2x the national average for their own letter.
--For BOS, I was wondering if I'd see like 50% FRD-A but only found 9.2%, still 1.7x the national average but I wonder why not more. They're not in neighboring New York, nor are there many FRD-B found in Boston.

Late block letters and star notes:

--On average, I found 33.5 late-block bills per 1000-bill brick. Other than S, there was a steady decline in the count of each letter as I got deeper into the alphabet. I found a single Y-block, that was a big "I wonder" for me.
--I found significantly more late blocks in SJ. Late blocks are strongly correlated to FRD-L, so the fact I found 2x the national average FRD-L in SJ23 and SJ24 explains why I got so many in late blocks.
--Note the decline in almost every letter between SJ23 and SJ24 The majority of late blocks I found were SR 2009, and as 2009s are taken out of circulation so too go the late blocks. The 30% percent decline in late blocks in SJ matches almost exactly the overall drop in 2009 bills.
--Star notes in my sample were pretty evenly distributed across locations but way less frequent than the production rate of 1.28%, or 1 in 78. I only found one in 140. That's a big difference for a large sample.

Interesting finds:

--1,2: the lowest and highest serial numbers I found.
--3,4: a repeater and four pairs (both ~1/10,000). I found zero radars.
--5: FRD-I star note out of a production run only 250K
--6: The one and only Y-block I found.
--7-10: Overinking on the 3d digit of the 2013s has been discussed on here before, that's #7. But #8 is 2017A, totally different series! And note the suggestion of overinking on #9 and #10 from 2021. I noticed far more 2013 overinking in my 2023 sample, maybe 1 or 2 per strap, but hardly any in 2024.
--11 I was wrong when I said bill #2 was the highest, but I had assumed 96M was the highest serial number. I found this and it's legit for this series, as pointed out by SteveinTampa, thank you, that's actually cool.
-12. this >96M bill was cut from a sheet (badly, may I add) and then circulated.
--I saw no errors and nothing earlier than 1963, no silver certificates.
--I was desperately hoping to find 5 consecutive 9's (odds: 1 in about 38,000) because I have five consecutive of everything else. Gotta keep trying I guess!

I'll be adding to this with an analysis of production timing and distribution, which is a little more complex...until then questions and comments welcomed!
Edited by TheSerialFlorist
08/23/2024 10:46 pm
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SteveInTampa's Avatar
United States
4632 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2024  02:39 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SteveInTampa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The #11 note, 1977A J-D block is regular production. The J-D block went up to serial number J99840000D and no modern sheets were sold until series 1981. The #12 note is definitely from a BEP issued sheet.
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jbuck's Avatar
United States
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redlock's Avatar
Germany
981 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2024  1:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add redlock to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Very interesting
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Coinfrog's Avatar
United States
94367 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2024  5:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Very well done indeed!
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walk2dwater's Avatar
Canada
2288 Posts
 Posted 08/23/2024  7:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add walk2dwater to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I enjoy reading posts like this because they're so seldom seen & b/c observations/studies like this illuminate how difficult it is to find special serial numbers (or anything collectible). I took out about 6000 2017 Commemorative Tens here in Canada (P-112) before I found my first radar (out of 7 digits).
https://en.numista.com/catalogue/note201753.html

Yes, got a few repeater serial # but the radars were what I was really after & they were few & far between (really hard to find). It didn't help that the printers no longer produced replacement notes & numbers were not quite consecutive (as we saw in the past). Instead, I (& others) discovered big gaps between the serial numbers (from one bundle -100_ to the next) & this was in sealed bricks (1000). This was likely where sheets were being rejected due to QC (collector speculation). Fortunately, others started to report similar findings from their bank withdrawals so we started to flesh out what was happening (no more replacements but extended CDF prefix). Later our collector findings were confirmed by the Bank of Canada.

All of these types of reports really do help the collector community understand what is out there (& what is difficult to find, etc) & how the notes are distributed.

Thanks for sharing.
Edited by walk2dwater
08/23/2024 7:22 pm
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BadDog's Avatar
United States
1320 Posts
 Posted 09/22/2024  11:48 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BadDog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Steve said

Quote:
The #11 note, 1977A J-D block is regular production. The J-D block went up to serial number J99840000D...


BEP Monthly production figures from Oct 2002 are available on the BEPs website at Monthly Production Reports.

One resource for production figures for earlier months can be found on USPaperMoneyInfo.com at Original BEP Monthly Reports.

Although current BEP practice is to limit the high serial number for production notes to 96,000,000 that wasn't always the case. As Steve indicated, for these 1977A series notes, serial numbers went higher. Here's the production report from Dec 1980 for the 1977-A J-D note picture posted by the OP

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