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Valued Member
United States
207 Posts |
USD as measured by DXY, the dollar index, is actually at it's best level since XMAS 2023. Back then it was about 101, now about 106. USD has been in a general uptrend since 2008 when it was around 73!
Yes, in general if USD is falling, gold tends to rise.
Despite what you hear about inflation, ballooning deficit, and rising debt to GDP, the dollar is soldiering on. I would guess other countries with a major currency are pretty much in the same boat. The common denominator being that humans are running things. Their economies may have recently slowed, resulting in the strengthening dollar.
The only way for the dollar to plummet is for the US to print money at a rate that far surpasses what the other major economies are doing. So far that does not appear to be happening.
Edited by glenmorenee 04/12/2024 3:24 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
4065 Posts |
Printing faster than other major economies will cause the dollar to fall relative to those currencies. However, regardless of what other economies do (for the most part), printing faster than the real growth rate will inevitably cause a swell in commodities prices. Particularly in commodities where more supply cannot be readily produced in response to increased demand.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3188 Posts |
People might not understand my terms Brandmeister but they hedge instinctively. Sadly, most people have no sense of scale. Buying an ounce of gold at Costco has a feelgood effect rather than accomplishing any substantial hedge. The instinct is there but they need 50 ounces.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Bedrock of the Community
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94367 Posts |
Buying gold as a hedge, especially at this level, is a fool's game.
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Valued Member
United States
401 Posts |
The gold at Costco is a very good deal. If you have an executive membership you will earn 2% back. They only take Visa. Most either get cash back or airline miles. When I bought it was priced 40-60 dollars above spot. It was shipped UPS overnight. Price includes delivery. I also bought Canadian silver maple leafs. They looked like factory defects although they tested out fine.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3188 Posts |
DXY is an index of the dollar against other currencies (Euro, Yen, CDN, etc) glenmorenee. If DXY rises, it is because the other currencies have fallen. It doesn't have anything to do with anything other than fiat currency exchange rates.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq 04/13/2024 12:48 pm
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Valued Member
United States
207 Posts |
I was pointing out that the value of the USD is certainly not plummeting and is fairly robust at the moment. DXY is a fair indication of the dollar's value in global markets.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3188 Posts |
The value of ALL fiat currencies is plummeting glenmorenee. Whether you buy your groceries in dollars or euros it takes substantially more of either one than it did four years ago.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq 04/13/2024 12:48 pm
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Valued Member
Canada
113 Posts |
I feel our canadian dollar has lost about 40 % of its value in the last 7 years. Last year a package of 2 T bones was about $ 28 , this year same pack $47 . House tax went up 10 % 2 years ago and this year another 5 % . Lazy boy recliners went from $ 1500 5 years ago to $ 2400 now. I agree all fiats are dropping , right now mining ,oil ,uranium and precious metals look good to us. Everytime inflation numbers are released it is "EX " something.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3188 Posts |
All governments everywhere spend money to solve every problem. If they don't have the money they sell government bonds and print more.
50 years ago this problem solving strategy worked because the debt was small. But now the bonded indebtedness created by overspending is monumental. In the US the interest on it exceeds the Defense budget. Don't expect the politicians to solve the problem they created to solve problems.
Regarding Canada, I have a few 1/2 ounce gold $100CDN coins from the early 1980's. They're proofs, but at the time they were issued, they were worth $100CDN. Today they're worth $1650CDN.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq 04/13/2024 09:56 am
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Moderator
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54140 Posts |
Quote: Buying gold as a hedge, especially at this level, is a fool's game. When I bought gold at $1,400 per ounce people said I was a fool.
Show your financial support of the Coin Community Family (click here)See my topic on Mexican Numismatic Medals (click here)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1776 Posts |
Anybody that follows the stock market, knows who Jeremy Grantham, Marc Faber, Harry Dent are, aka (perma-bears/doom & gloomers). If you listen to their concerns, they do make sense, at least to me. I'm cognizant of the fact, Harry is an outlandish raving lunatic but I thought I'd pose a couple questions to the community.... Does anyone here have a valid argument against, why his predictions will not come to fruition? If the "Everything Bubble (stocks, real estate & crypto)" pops, would precious metals not be a hedge/beneficiary? This link = "US economist predicts 2024 will bring 'biggest crash of our lifetime" https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/u...ash-lifetime
Edited by coin rejector 04/13/2024 12:46 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3188 Posts |
We are always in the last days and everyone is always a survivalist to some extent. What has preserved the world in debt-land for the last 50 years is the ability to continuously devalue every currency. So far that has been smooth, but the pace of devaluation has accelerated.
I only became aware of metals as a store of value when liquidating my dad's coin "collection". 90% of the value was in modern gold proofs, and not much more than their metal content. His stocks and real estate were worth far more, but it was a good lesson. In 6 months the stock (royalty trusts) dropped 80-90%, and I was lucky to liquidate them ahead of that. I watched his royalty trust bubble burst from a hedged position in munis and mutual funds, not metals.
If the whole financial system collapses the way those trusts did, the valuable assets will be food, fuel and unmortgaged shelter. Metals could be useful as a medium of exchange, like they were for gypsies. Sort of what bitcoin promised to be before it became a speculation tool.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq 04/13/2024 1:15 pm
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Valued Member
United States
207 Posts |
Is it inflation or is it currency devaluation? Which comes first? Is it the fault of the guy who demands higher wages? The corporations raising prices? Or the government opening the spigots to a pig trough to pay off lobbyists who just represent companies with employees?
It has been the same routine since I was born and I'm 70. What is the next 70 years going to look like? Probably the same just with different players. Maybe next time it will be Italy. Argentina has defaulted 9 times so make it an even dozen. The fixes will be the same, refinance, extend, write off, and maybe a little austerity.
The lowest probability would be a default by any of the majors. No major will stop kicking the can down the road and default when all the other majors just keep kicking.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3188 Posts |
I don't know glenmorenee. Lots of causes. I tend to blame entitlement spending which I collect in SS and Medicare. The government has depleted the reserves, which either means reducing the benefits or increasing the borrowing to maintain them. It's easy to guess how the politicians will act.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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