Well, as we all know
ebay has spoiled a lot of fun
by removing bidder identities. I used to track bidders interested in counterfeit coins but since I can not do that - I decided simply to track the number of 8R counterfeits I could spot on
ebay. I also decided to see how many 8Rs were posted of the Major types - Cobs, Pillar, Portrait and Cap and Ray. I also counted the 1/2R, 1R, 2R and 4Rs listed within each type.
I started on May first and looked at every listing under Mexico for 6 weeks. I tracked the number of auctions posted every day and then how many of the 8Rs were counterfeit. The results are not too surprising at least to me. But they may be of interest to other collectors who do not understand the number of counterfeits on the market.
Here are some of the raw numbers and percentages.
Total number of auctions in Mexico - 16,799
Total number of 8 Reales - 1,989 (11.8% of all auctions)
Total number of Cap and Ray 8Rs - 1,133 (6.7% of all auctions
56.9% of all 8Rs)
Total number of Counterfeit C&R 8Rs - 71 (6.2% of all 8Rs)
Total Number of Counterfeit C&R 8Rs properly identified - 28
Total Number of Counterfeit C&R 8Rs NOT identified - 43 (60%)
In general, about 8% of all 8R coins posted were CLEARLY counterfeit. The percentages were highest for the cob coins followed by the coins dated between 1821 and 1842 (just over 11%). Otherwise 4% is a fair average for 8Rs. Minor denomination coins were counterfeited far less often - under 2% of C&R minor coins were counterfeit and the vast majority 99% were properly identified as counterfeits.
Other facts - Modern counterfeits are most common in earlier types. All cob counterfeits I saw were modern as were all the Pillar types.
The number of minor coins of each type was far smaller than the 8Rs.
.........Cob........Pillar.....Portrait........Cap & Ray
1/2R......15..........41..........166............233
1 R.......28..........54..........138............172
2 R.......36..........54..........184............272
4 R.......49...........3...........26............141
8 R......108.........161..........587...........1133
The statistic that jumps out at me was the comparative scarcity of Pillar 4R coins with only three being posted out of a total of over 16,000 auctions.
The other conclusion I draw at this point is that counterfeit 8Rs dated between 1821 and 1842 are the MOST likely to be encountered and that more than half of those will be improperly attributed. The most dangerous areas due to modern counterfeits being prevalent are in the Pillar and Cobs.
Obviously this data is particular to this one interval. I plan to keep the tally going for a year just to see if the data remains the same.
You are safest buying minor denominations in terms of encountering a forgery with no warning.
Posted 07/01/2009 2:14 pm
